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The Difference Between A Rumour And A Reason To Plan Ahead

By Nigel Guy · 2 min read

A post says a major model release is "weeks away," or that a tool you use is about to change its pricing, or shut down a feature. You don't quite believe it, but you don't quite dismiss it either — so you hold off on a decision, or start half-planning for a future that may never arrive. The rumour has done its work without ever having to be true.

The Two-Axis Test

Every piece of speculation can be placed on two axes. Do this in your head or on paper before you let it change anything.

Axis 1: How credible is it?

• Is there an identifiable source, or is it "people are saying"?
• Has that source been right before about this kind of thing — and have you checked, rather than remembered?
• Is there corroboration from an independent source, not just the same claim reposted?
• Does the company itself say anything, even a non-denial?

Axis 2: How consequential would it be for you?

• If it's true, what would you actually have to do differently?
• How much time would you need to adjust — days, weeks, months?
• What does it cost you if it happens and you hadn't prepared?

Then read off the quadrant:

Only the bottom-right quadrant earns action, and the action is small.

What "a cheap contingency" means

A contingency is something you can do now that costs little and makes the bad outcome easier to handle. For example:

• Exporting data you'd need if a tool changed its terms.
• Identifying — not switching to — an alternative, and noting what a switch would involve.
• Avoiding a long commitment, such as an annual plan, until the picture is clearer.
• Keeping a manual version of an automated step documented, in case the automation breaks.

What a contingency isn't: rebuilding your workflow, migrating early, or telling other people something is definitely happening.

What to skip

Skip anything framed as insider knowledge with no way to check it. Skip rumours about release dates for things you wouldn't use on day one anyway — the date doesn't matter to you. And skip passing rumours on to colleagues or clients as planning inputs; you'll lend them credibility they haven't earned.

Guardrails

• Credibility is hard to judge from the outside, and a source's track record is easy to misremember. Be honest about how sure you actually are.
• Some rumours turn out true. The point of the test isn't to be right about which — it's to make sure that when you're wrong, it costs you very little.
• When a rumour is confirmed officially, it's no longer a rumour. Switch to "The Difference Between A Roadmap And A Promise" to judge how firm the confirmation actually is.
• If you find you're spending real time tracking speculation, that's worth noticing in itself. See "The Honest Case For Boredom."

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